Questions have recently been raised about whether Aston Villa are beginning to lose momentum. The team, led by Unai Emery, has managed to secure only two victories in their last six Premier League fixtures. Even more concerning for supporters is their dip in form at Villa Park, a ground that once felt like a fortress but has now witnessed three defeats in their last five home games.
Despite these setbacks, Villa still occupy third place in the league standings and have an opportunity to solidify their position when they face bottom-placed Wolverhampton Wanderers. A win there could extend their advantage over Chelsea to nine points before a challenging trip to league leaders Arsenal. Additionally, victory would bring them closer to second-placed Manchester City, potentially reducing the gap to just two points.
Villa’s presence in the top four has been consistent since their victory over Leeds on 23 November, yet Emery has repeatedly played down expectations of securing Champions League qualification. He has insisted that his team should not be considered among the main contenders for a top-five finish, suggesting that other clubs possess stronger squads and greater long-term potential.
Interestingly, when pressed to explain why he believes other teams have a higher ceiling than Villa, Emery chose not to elaborate further. However, the results on the pitch continue to challenge his cautious stance. This is particularly remarkable given that Villa endured their worst start to a Premier League campaign in nearly three decades, collecting only two points and failing to score in their first four matches.
Since taking over from Steven Gerrard in November 2023, Emery has significantly elevated standards at the club. His impact has been transformative, guiding Villa to their first appearance in Europe’s elite competition since the 1982-83 season, when it was still known as the European Cup, and subsequently leading them to the quarter-finals in the following campaign.
Statistically, Emery’s managerial credentials are impressive. Among managers who have overseen more than 100 Premier League games, he ranks within the top ten with an average of 1.8 points per game across his spells with Arsenal and Aston Villa. Of the managers above him in this metric, most have won league titles, with Pep Guardiola leading the chart. Notably, Mikel Arteta, who replaced Emery at Arsenal, is the only one among the top group yet to claim a league title.
Another area where Emery has excelled is player development. His recruitment strategy has been astute, highlighted by the £16 million signing of Morgan Rogers from Middlesbrough. At the time, Rogers was not even a guaranteed starter at his former club, yet under Emery’s guidance he has evolved into a regular member of the England setup within two years.
Emery’s meticulous and hardworking approach has become a defining feature of Villa’s rise. Even when performances have not been spectacular this season, the team has found ways to grind out results. According to analytical data from Opta, Villa’s expected points tally stands at 33.8, which would place them around 12th in the table. This discrepancy suggests that Emery has successfully pushed his side to consistently outperform statistical expectations.
However, the Spaniard is currently navigating several challenges. Key midfielders including Boubacar Kamara, Youri Tielemans, and club captain John McGinn have all been sidelined through injury in recent weeks. At the same time, financial constraints and the need to comply with Premier League and UEFA regulations have limited squad flexibility.
Beyond league ambitions, Emery is also targeting silverware and hopes to end Villa’s three-decade wait for a major trophy. Their Europa League campaign presents a realistic opportunity to achieve that goal, provided they maintain focus and depth during the demanding schedule.
Emery has acknowledged occasional frustration within the squad when results do not fully reflect their ambitions. Nevertheless, he insists that the team’s standards and consistency remain strong. In his view, their current league position is the result of sustained discipline and high expectations, rather than luck. He also believes that making drastic tactical changes at this stage of the season would be counterproductive, as the foundation built over time continues to make sense strategically.
The bigger question is whether Villa can fend off the teams chasing them. Compared to rivals such as Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Newcastle, Villa have arguably been more consistent overall. Yet their recent drop in form has prevented them from creating a comfortable cushion and has effectively ended discussions of a potential title challenge.
Their upcoming fixtures present a significant test of their resilience. Matches against Chelsea, a trip to Old Trafford, a home clash with Liverpool, and a season finale away at Manchester City will likely determine whether they can secure a Champions League spot.
One of the reasons Villa have struggled to pull away from their rivals is their recent attacking output. Over the last eight league games, they have collected only 12 points and scored just eight goals. During this period, only Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, and Wolves have found the net less frequently.
Key forward Ollie Watkins has scored just once in his last ten appearances, reflecting a dip in form reminiscent of his earlier struggles this season. Similarly, Morgan Rogers has managed only a single goal in his past ten league matches. Although Tammy Abraham made a promising start after arriving from Roma with two goals, Villa still require greater creativity and clinical finishing in the final third. Notably, eleven Premier League teams currently boast a higher expected goals (xG) tally than Villa.
Historically, underlying performance metrics tend to align with results over time, and Villa’s recent outcomes have begun to mirror their overall displays more closely. Club officials, however, have emphasized that accumulating points remains the primary objective, dismissing claims that the team previously relied excessively on long-range goals.
Villa have scored 13 goals from outside the penalty area this season, slightly more than Bournemouth but still far below the record set by Chelsea in 2006-07. Their conversion rate from such attempts stands at 10.4%, and as those spectacular goals have become less frequent, their defensive resilience has taken on greater importance.
Defensively, the team has performed admirably, even though they continue to allow a considerable number of chances. Only the top two teams in the league have conceded fewer goals. Interestingly, Villa’s defensive expected goals figure sits at 38, based on facing 346 shots, yet they have conceded just 28 goals. This makes them the biggest overperformers defensively in terms of xG in the Premier League this season.
Ultimately, statistics suggest that Villa may have been outperforming expectations for much of the campaign. With only 11 domestic games remaining, Emery’s task is to ensure that his team maintains their competitive edge and continues defying predictive models. If they can sustain their defensive solidity while rediscovering attacking efficiency, Villa stand a strong chance of securing a Champions League place and capping a remarkable season.
