The Champions League league phase is approaching its decisive moment, with just one round of fixtures left to be played. After weeks of twists, turns and tight margins, the picture of what teams need to do to progress is finally becoming clearer—although plenty of drama still lies ahead.
At this stage, only a handful of clubs can relax. Arsenal are already assured of a place in the last 16 and will be joined directly by Bayern Munich. For the rest of Europe’s elite, however, qualification is far from guaranteed, with positions still up for grabs across the table.
Who has already secured a last-16 place?
Arsenal currently sit at the top of the Champions League standings, having won all seven of their matches so far. Mikel Arteta’s side need just a single point at home against Kairat Almaty in the final round to confirm first place, finishing above Bayern Munich.
In practical terms, finishing first or second will not greatly alter Arsenal’s immediate path. The top two teams are paired together in the draw and will face one of the winners from the play-off ties involving teams placed between 15th and 18th or 16th and 17th. However, there is a significant advantage attached to a top-two finish: both Arsenal and Bayern will be guaranteed to play the second leg at home in every knockout round until the final.
Bayern Munich, meanwhile, need at least a draw away at PSV Eindhoven to cement their place in the top two. While their qualification is already secure, that point would remove any lingering doubt about seeding and home advantage later in the competition.
The race for the top eight intensifies
Beyond Arsenal and Bayern, the fight for direct entry into the last 16 is where things become especially intriguing. The top eight teams in the table automatically qualify, while those finishing outside that group must contest play-off matches.
Real Madrid and Liverpool, both sitting on 15 points, are well placed. A win in the final round will guarantee either side a spot in the top eight. Tottenham, just one point behind on 14, are in a similarly strong position and also know that victory will see them through directly.
Tottenham face already-eliminated Eintracht Frankfurt away from home, giving them a clear opportunity to take care of business. Liverpool, managed by Arne Slot, host Qarabag at Anfield. While Qarabag are still mathematically in contention for a top-eight finish, Liverpool know that a win would remove all uncertainty.
Speaking about the importance of avoiding the play-offs, Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk emphasised the value of finishing in the top eight. “It’s very important because you miss the play-offs, and that helps with the intense schedule we’re facing,” he told UEFA. “It’s in our hands again next week at home. We’ve put ourselves in a good position, but now we need to finish the job.”
Real Madrid face a tougher challenge, travelling to Benfica, who themselves need a win to keep their own hopes of reaching the play-offs alive. With both teams highly motivated, that match promises to be one of the standout fixtures of the final round.
A tightly packed chasing group
Behind Tottenham lies a congested pack of teams separated by the finest of margins. From reigning champions Paris St-Germain in sixth place down to Atalanta in 13th, eight teams are locked on 13 points. Among them are Newcastle United, Chelsea and Manchester City, all of whom realistically need a win—and even then may have to rely on goal difference or other results.
Newcastle face arguably the toughest assignment of the lot, travelling to Paris to face PSG. Chelsea are away in Italy against Napoli, while Manchester City host Galatasaray. Despite City’s strong home record, nothing can be taken for granted at this stage.
Remarkably, everyone down to Qarabag in 18th place still retains a mathematical chance of finishing in the top eight. That unusual situation is largely due to the way the fixtures have fallen. Of the 18 matches scheduled for the final round, only two involve teams competing directly against each other for top-eight spots: Newcastle’s visit to PSG and Borussia Dortmund’s home clash with Inter Milan.
The play-off battle remains wide open
The congestion does not end there. The race to secure a play-off place is just as intense, with nearly the entire table still in contention. Only the bottom four teams—Eintracht Frankfurt, Slavia Prague, Villarreal and Kairat—have already been eliminated.
From Marseille in 19th place down to Ajax in 32nd, just three points separate 14 teams. Even Borussia Dortmund, currently 16th and only two points ahead of Marseille, have not mathematically guaranteed a play-off spot, despite still having slim hopes of sneaking into the top eight.
Once again, the fixture list has added to the unpredictability. Only two matches feature direct clashes between play-off contenders: Ajax versus Olympiacos, and Marseille’s trip to Club Brugge. Elsewhere, teams will be anxiously watching results from other stadiums as goal difference and fine margins come into play.
Final round fixtures
All matches will kick off simultaneously at 20:00 GMT on 28 January, ensuring a dramatic evening across Europe:
- Ajax v Olympiacos
- Arsenal v Kairat
- Athletic Club v Sporting
- Atletico Madrid v Bodo/Glimt
- Barcelona v Copenhagen
- Bayer Leverkusen v Villarreal
- Benfica v Real Madrid
- Borussia Dortmund v Inter Milan
- Club Brugge v Marseille
- Eintracht Frankfurt v Tottenham
- Liverpool v Qarabag
- Manchester City v Galatasaray
- Monaco v Juventus
- Napoli v Chelsea
- PSV Eindhoven v Bayern Munich
- Pafos v Slavia Prague
- Paris St-Germain v Newcastle
- Union Saint-Gilloise v Atalanta
With so much at stake across the table, the final round promises tension, drama and potential surprises as Europe’s top clubs battle to extend their Champions League journeys.
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