The race to avoid relegation in the Premier League is shaping up to be one of the most dramatic in recent years, and the famous 40-point safety mark could once again come into focus. With West Ham United mounting a late push from the bottom three, the battle for survival remains wide open heading into the final stretch of the season.
For decades, 40 points has been viewed as the unofficial benchmark for Premier League safety — the total widely believed to guarantee survival. Managers and supporters often reference it as the number that allows clubs to breathe easily. However, interestingly, no team has actually required the full 40 points to avoid relegation since the 2010-11 campaign.
Before that, only a handful of seasons saw teams relegated despite reaching or exceeding 40 points — specifically in 1996-97, 1997-98, and 2002-03. Yet with the current competitiveness near the bottom of the table, there is growing speculation that the traditional threshold might once again become relevant.
West Ham currently sit in 18th position but are showing signs of resurgence. They are just three points behind 17th-placed Nottingham Forest, who recently made headlines by parting company with manager Sean Dyche following a goalless draw against Wolves. Tottenham Hotspur, meanwhile, are only two points ahead of Forest in 16th after dismissing Thomas Frank earlier this week.
With 12 matches remaining in the campaign, West Ham remain firmly in contention. Their current total of 24 points is the highest recorded by a team in 18th place at this stage of a season since 2019-20 — a year in which the Hammers ultimately survived the drop with 39 points.
Encouragingly for West Ham supporters, the team has found form at a crucial moment. They have collected 10 points from their last five games, including three victories. This recent surge has transformed them into arguably the most in-form side among the teams battling at the foot of the table.
Nuno Espirito Santo, who has experience navigating relegation battles from his time managing Nottingham Forest, appears to be instilling renewed belief and organization within the squad. His understanding of what is required in high-pressure survival scenarios could prove invaluable during the closing weeks.
Leeds United have also shown improvement. Victories over Fulham and Forest, combined with hard-earned draws against Everton and Chelsea, have boosted their momentum. Currently six points clear of West Ham, Leeds cannot afford complacency as the campaign enters its decisive phase.
In stark contrast, Tottenham’s recent performances have been alarming. Spurs have managed only four points from their last nine matches, a poor run that has dragged them closer to danger than many anticipated earlier in the season. Their managerial change reflects the growing pressure within the club.
Nottingham Forest’s form has also dipped dramatically. The now-managerless side has secured just two wins in their past 10 outings. Their inconsistency has opened the door for West Ham and others to close the gap.
Further up the table, Brighton and Crystal Palace may also feel uneasy. Brighton, currently 14th with 31 points, have endured a dismal spell, winning only one league match since late November. Palace sit just above them, one point ahead, but have claimed only one victory since early December. Most recently, they squandered a two-goal advantage to lose against struggling Burnley — a result that has heightened tension among their supporters.
Had West Ham managed to hold on for victory against Manchester United earlier this week, they would have equaled the best-ever points tally by an 18th-placed side at this stage of a 38-game season. Instead, they remain marginally above the historical average for teams in that position.
Recent trends suggest that 36 points have been sufficient for survival across the past nine seasons. However, given the tight clustering of teams and improving form among those near the bottom, this year’s threshold could rise higher.
West Ham supporters will be well aware of their club’s painful history regarding relegation. The Hammers hold the unwanted record for being relegated with the highest points total in a 38-game season — 42 points in the dramatic 2002-03 campaign. That year, they collected 22 points from their final 12 matches but still suffered the drop after a tense draw against Birmingham City on the final day.
The current squad can draw inspiration from past survival successes. This is the sixth Premier League season in which West Ham have had 24 points or fewer at this stage. In five previous instances, they managed to stay up three times.
In the 2006-07, 2019-20, and 2022-23 seasons, the Hammers collected at least 15 points from their final 12 games to secure safety. Those campaigns demonstrated the club’s ability to rally when facing adversity.
Only once in the past five similar scenarios did West Ham collapse late on — during the 2010-11 season, when they failed to collect 15 points from their remaining fixtures and were relegated.
This year’s fixture schedule adds further intrigue. West Ham are set to conclude their season with a potentially decisive home clash against Leeds United. Given that Leeds are currently six points clear, the encounter could have significant implications for both sides.
If West Ham continue their upward trajectory, it is entirely possible that the survival battle will extend to the final weeks. In such a scenario, the long-discussed 40-point mark may once again emerge as the decisive benchmark.
The combination of managerial changes, fluctuating form, and historical precedent suggests this relegation fight could be among the most gripping in recent memory. As momentum shifts week by week, every point gained or lost may ultimately determine who remains in the Premier League and who drops into the Championship.
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